2020 Nomination Odd's

My view on the chances of candidates to win their parties nomination.

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Name recognition, experience, likely to win in the states that matter. Polling highest early.

15% Chance

Joe Biden

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Early advantage with CA primary first, US Senator who is popular amongst progressives, serious on policy.

15% Chance

Kamala Harris

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Momentum from Senate race, shockingly effective small dollar donation raiser, party likes him.

8% Chance

Beto O'Rourke

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Sitting Senator who is popular with progressives in the party. Big name recognition with populist appeal.

7% Chance

Elizabeth Warren

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Lighting rod of 2016 election, name recognition, could do well in CA primary, still lost 16 by 3 mil votes.

6% Chance

Bernie Sanders

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Sitting POTUS, unpopular but race will tighten at the end. Outside chance he's impeached or doesn't run.

60% Chance

Donald Trump

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Sitting Vice POTUS, if Trump is impeached or doesn't run, he'll be next in line, has stayed out of the crosshairs.

15% Chance

Mike Pence

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Former Gov of Ohio, likely to primary Trump. It Trump doesn't run then has a real chance at nomination.

5% Chance

John Kasich

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Trump critic who could run as a chance to pitch a next-gen GOP. Not populist enough to win though.

2% Chance

Ben Sasse

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Could run just to denounce Trump-ism, if Trump doesn't run he still wouldn't win, vanity campaign.

0% Chance

Jeff Flake

*The Democrats are likely to have 15-ish candidates run and uncertainty is high.

2020 Election Prediction

A close election Democrats will win because of the upper-midwest.

It now seems that Ohio and Iowa are red.

Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are blue.

 

It all comes down to Michigan, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin.

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