The Case For Amy Klobuchar 2020
Updated: Nov 30, 2018
It is my belief that the 2020 Presidential election will come down to 3 states; Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Democrats will win if they win the upper-midwest states that Trump won in 2016 by razor thin margins.
Even if Democrats lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina & Arizona, then can still get to 270 by bringing back the, "Blue Wall." This is no secret so the obvious question is which candidate is best positioned to win these states?
How about Amy Klobuchar? She is one of the most effective legislators in the Senate and is one of the most popular politicians in America. The three term Senator from Minnesota boasts one of the most impressive approval ratings in the country, paired with a no drama style that may contrast well with Trump in 2020.
Popularity & Geographic Advantage
Of the 5 most popular Senators in the US, 3 are Democrats and 1 is geographically positioned in the states that will matter most in 2020. Sure Bernie is popular, but does he win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania? He may, but he is also a more polarizing figure, with his use of the word, "Socialist," which may serve to push suburban voters away.
Amy Klobuchar stands out on this list as the only Democrat from the midwest who is incredibly popular.
Elections Are About Contrast
It's the theory of Michael Avenatti that Democrats need a, "Fighter," in 2020 to defeat Trump. This may or may not be true.
History suggests that Presidential Elections are often about change and contrast. After the, "Long national nightmare," of Nixon's watergate drama, America chose a Sunday School Teacher/Peanut Farmer from Georgia whose main campaign promise was, "I will never lie to you."
Perhaps a candidate like Klobuchar could contrast Trump with a, "I will never troll you," mantra. She can pitch America on a no drama, serious, back to business message that may resonate with an electorate that is exhausted by our current President.
She is Trump's opposite in almost every way. She is trustworthy, has a deep understanding of the law (as a former prosector) and she's a woman. The GOP is in total free fall with women, and especially suburban women. Democrats should run the ball into the end zone in 2020, by putting forward a candidate that women will turn out for, and men will trust.
The Mainstream Media
Another reason that Senator Klobuchar is a potentially formidable candidate, is that the mainstream media will take her seriously. So called, "fringe," candidates in past primaries have been hurt by lack of coverage by the largest broadcasters and publications. Bernie Sanders 2016 campaign often complained about their lack coverage versus Hillary Clinton.
In the case of Amy Klobuchar, she would be taken seriously by MSM outlets as a respected 3 term Senator. Favorable coverage is no guarantee of electoral success but it's certainly easier to gain traction as a candidate without the headwind of the MSM calling you Fringe, or describing you as extreme or unqualified.
The Counter Argument
The best argument against Amy Klobuchar is that an alienated electorate will want an anti-establishment or populist candidate. Someone like Senator Sherrod Brown, comes to mind in the mold.
Amy's mild demeanor and folksy charm is good in theory, but the Democratic primary may trend towards a more fiery, populist figure like Bernie Sanders of Elizabeth Warren.
There is also the issue of the primary calendar. California will not vote first, before Iowa, and it's not likely Senator Klobuchar would over preform in California. If she does run. and gets lost in the middle of the pack, she may have difficulty breaking out. Only a convincing win in Iowa could move her to front runner status.
Still, despite real challenges, including a large field of candidates, she has the credentials, experience and geographic appeal that would make her a strong general election candidate in 2020. The only question is, can she win a Democratic primary. I hope she runs so we can find out.